PRESIDENT TINUBU'S INTERFERENCE IN STATE ELECTIONS MAY TRIGGER A NATIONAL CRISIS! PEARSE

Recently, former President Good luck Jonathan lamented what he saw as disturbing similarities between the political intrigues perpetrated by the federal government today and the political turbulence which consumed the Nation, beginning with the communal violence which erupted in the Western Region during the 1960s.

Certainly, the electoral malpractices recorded in the Local Government election in Rivers State and the governorship election in Edo State between September and October 2024 present cause for concern. They have an uncanny resemblance to the political shenanigans which preceded the collapse of the First Republic and the outbreak of the Nigeria - Biafra Civil War of 1967-1971.


In the First Republic the genesis of the Federal government's desperate determination to win elections can be traced to the collapse of the alliance between the Northern People's Congress (NPC) and the National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroon (NCNC).

The collapse of the alliance nullified the legitimacy of the NPC government and necessitated the formation of another alliance with which the NPC would prosecute the upcoming election. The NPC reached out to Samuel Ladoke Akintola, Premier of Western Region.

The position in which Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa and his party (NPC) found themselves in 1964 is similar to that which President Tinubu and his APC find themselves today in 2024.

President Tinubu came into office with most of his votes coming from the North. Today, that coalition is virtually gone. The northerners have accused Tinubu of impoverishing the North more than other parts of the country. They are unhappy with him for marginalizing them in key national appointments and for not doing enough to combat insecurity in the North.


With the deterioration of the northern alliance, Tinubu has become desperate to establish another alliance. He is now looking south.

This is why in the Edo Governorship race of August 2024, Tinubu, just as Balewa did in 1964, deployed the army, the police, the judiciary and the Independent National Electoral Commission ( INEC) to enforce the victory of his party's candidate. In October 1965 , in spite of the well publicized massive irregularities of the Regional Assembly elections, the Federal government simply instructed the Federal Electoral Commission (FEC) to announce the results in its favor throughout the country. The NPC won the North, its satellite Akintola's NNDP was given a majority of the West, and an NPC faction of the NCNC which had been carved out of the old Western Region in 1964 was given control of the Midwest Region.

The off - season elections taking place this year in Edo, Rivers , Ondo , Anambra , Kogi , and Kwara States serve as a precursor to the 2027 general elections. The level of credibility associated with the conduct of these elections will determine the level of the country's stability and the rate at which Nigerians evaluate the government itself as credible.

If President Tinubu continues with his grab and run Electoral strategy, and Alhaji Ganduje , the National Chairman of the APC actualizes his threat to deploy the 'Edo election template 'of rewriting results at INEC Collation Centers, it is easy to predict that the country will fall apart as it did between 1964 and 1966. All people of good will should remain vigilant, and be prepared to vote this party that wears electoral theft as a badge of honor out of office in 2027. 

Dr Adetokunbo Pearse PhD, Public Affairs Analyst and Convener Reset Lagos PDP, Member PDP National Presidential Campaign Council (2023).